The results are in from a UK parliament by-election in what is known as Glasgow East. This is Labour territory through and through, but last night the people voted SNP in a swing of over 22%. (Ever notice how politicians always say “The good people of…<Insert name of by-election here>”?)
A lot of bloggers are suggesting that this is a turning point where independence is just round the corner. Although this of course is a great change, winning a seat Labour have held for 60 years, I don’t think we can all rush out and start ordering new blue and white passports quite yet.
Independence wasn’t really mentioned in the campaign and the real vote was between the popularity of the two party’s which of course can rise and fall cyclically, rather than on the constitutional makeup of the country.
I think that there is a lot more work to be done before significant proportions of west central Scotland are convinced by the arguments for independence.
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However, I do think that this by election could influence Labour’s “support” (the inverted commas can be read twice as strong as usual) for an independence referendum through the Scottish parliament. Would they risk a vote now when thy have just lost such a safe seat?
This of course is a double edged sword for them. I have to say that I think an independence referendum in 2011 would be 50/50, but in 2015 we might have the edge. The new Labour leader in Scotland has some hard decisions to make…
